Disclosure: I'm the founder of Options Matrix Pro. This is an explanation of the maths, not a trade idea. Iron condors can lose several times what they collect.

The setup

Snapshot taken before the US open on 3 November 2026, with TSLA quoted at $402.64. Four legs, all expiring 4 December 2026 (31 days):

The visualizer shows a net credit of $758, a maximum loss of $2,242, breakevens at $357.42 and $462.58, and a probability of profit around 67%.

The dashed curve keeps each leg's quoted implied volatility fixed as the price moves; the IV slider scales all legs together.

Where does each of those come from?

1. The expiration line is pure arithmetic

At expiry every option is worth its intrinsic value, so the solid line needs no model at all:

const legs = [
  { type: 'put',  strike: 335, qty: +1, price: 3.025 },
  // ...the other three legs, with qty -1 for the short legs
];

function payoffAtExpiry(price, legs) {
  return legs.reduce((pnl, leg) => {
    const intrinsic = leg.type === 'call'
      ? Math.max(price - leg.strike, 0)
      : Math.max(leg.strike - price, 0);
    return pnl + leg.qty * (intrinsic - leg.price) * 100;
  }, 0);
}

Sweep price across a range and you get the flat-topped trapezoid. The summary numbers fall straight out of it:

• Max profit = net credit = $758, earned anywhere between the short strikes.
• Max loss = wing width minus credit = (30 × 100) − 758 = $2,242, beyond either long strike.
• Breakevens = short strikes ∓ credit per share: 365 − 7.58 = $357.42 and 455 + 7.58 = $462.58.

The risk-to-reward is roughly 3 to 1 against you. That is normal for a condor; you are paid a little, often, in exchange for an occasional larger loss.

2. The "today" curve needs a pricing model

The dashed curve is the position's value now at each hypothetical stock price. That needs an option pricing model (Black-Scholes for this kind of chart) fed with each leg's implied volatility, time to expiry and interest rate. It is why the dashed line is smoother than the expiry line and sits below it near the middle: there is still time value left that the short options will lose as days pass. The date slider under the chart moves along this axis, from today to expiration.

The Greeks shown with it come from the same model. For this snapshot: delta +1.44, theta +18.44 a day, vega −27.64. Positive theta and negative vega is the condor's whole thesis in two numbers: it earns from time passing and loses if volatility rises.

3. Expected move comes from the options market

The box in the corner reads EM (ATM straddle) ±$42.93 (10.7%). That is the price of buying the at-the-money call and put together, which the market treats as its own estimate of how far TSLA might travel by 4 December. The dashed vertical lines mark it. Here the short strikes ($365 and $455) sit just inside and just outside that range, which tells you at a glance how much room the trade really has.

4. Probability is a distribution, not a promise

The shaded bell curve is a lognormal distribution of where TSLA might finish, using 44.5% implied volatility. Probability of profit is the share of that curve lying between the two breakevens, about 67% here. Two cautions:

1. Implied volatility is the market's price for uncertainty, not a forecast. Real stock moves have fatter tails than a lognormal curve.
2. A 67% chance of a $758 gain against a 33% chance of losses up to $2,242 is not a free lunch. Probability and payoff have to be read together, which is the reason to draw them on one chart.

Why build it this way

Most of these numbers are easy to compute alone. The value is in seeing them together, live, while you drag strikes around. In Options Matrix Pro you can move any leg on the strike rail, change the expiry, stretch implied volatility, and watch all four pieces update. If you came here from OptionStrat, here is a straightforward comparison of the two. The visualizer is the entry plan, and the free expected move calculator and probability of profit calculator work with no account.

Questions about the maths are welcome in the comments.